WASHINGTON, D.C. - American businesses began preparing for geopolitical risks long before recent tariff disruptions, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation’s report, Geopolitical Shift: Corporate America's Growing Focus on Global Risk, reveals. The report finds that references to geopolitical risk in Fortune 250 financial disclosures have more than doubled since 2019, with a fourfold increase since 2009. The analysis shows that this shift spans all sectors of the economy – not just multinational or technology firms – underscoring a broad-based concern about the rising complexity of the global operating environment.
"This research affirms what business leaders have reported for years: American companies are operating in an increasingly volatile global environment and have been sounding the alarm about geopolitical risk for more than a decade," said Michael Carney, President of the U.S. Chamber Foundation. "We need stronger partnerships across sectors to meet the moment."
Using word embedding techniques from Natural Language Processing (NLP), researchers measured the semantic similarity of geopolitical terms to analyze the language in company earnings calls and public filings over a 15-year period. The result is the first large-scale, data-driven picture of how geopolitical risk has moved from the margins to the mainstream in corporate strategy and communication.
Key findings from the report include:
- Geopolitical references in corporate filings have shot up since 2009, with a steep rise beginning in 2019;
- Technology companies lead all sectors, though concern has grown across every industry;
- Companies cite geopolitics as both a broad systemic risk and a specific operational threat;
- The rise in concern is not tied to time-bound crises like the COVID-19 pandemic, signaling a longer-term strategic shift.
While surveys have captured executive sentiment about global uncertainty, this is the first study to systematically track how deeply those concerns have permeated formal financial reporting structures. The methodology controlled for year-specific biases, such as pandemic- or war-related language, allowing researchers to identify true underlying shifts in strategic communication.
The report is a companion to the Foundation's recent High Stakes: A Framework for Geopolitical Risk Management report based on new research by Dr. Meg Rithmire of Harvard Business School.
"American businesses are not bystanders," Carney added. "They detect risks early. They adapt quickly. And they help stabilize the markets and communities they serve. But they can't do it alone."
Building on decades of experience uniting government and industry, the U.S. Chamber Foundation is making a long-term commitment to bring the public and private sectors together to address broad, strategic threats to national security and prosperity. The Global Threats Initiative is a multi-year effort to help the nation anticipate, manage, and mitigate global risks through research, best practice sharing, and deeper collaboration between business and government leaders.
The U.S. Chamber Foundation commissioned FiscalNote, a global policy and market intelligence company, to conduct this research using its proprietary tools. Analysts at the U.S. Chamber Foundation provided additional evaluation to track long-term patterns and identify emerging trends across sectors.
For more information or to access the full report, visit: https://www.uschamberfoundation.org/emerging-issues/geopolitical-shift
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